This is like my Spring Training roster so far. Not everyone is going to make the cut but here are the stats that are fighting for a regular season roster spot:
OFFENSIVE STATS-
Isolated Power (IsoP): Calculated as SLG minus BA. Takes away the singles that makes a person's SLG look higher than it should be.
Isolated Discipline (IsoD): OBP minus BA. Shows how successful a player is at getting on base when he's NOT hitting. A player with a .345 BA can easily have a .400 OBP but that doesn't mean he walks a lot. His BA is the main reason his OBP is so high. As his BA drops, his OBP is sure to drop a lot too. Players with a high IsoD will see their OBP drop less when they have hitting slumps.
Isolated On-base Plus Slugging (IsoOPS): OPS minus BA. What you may or may not know is that OPS calculates batting average twice [OPS= (IsoD+ BA) + (IsoP + BA)]. A batter with a .350 BA is automatically guaranteed a .700 OPS meaning he doesn't have to walk a lot or hit for a lot of power to have a OPS among the best in the league. This forces them to do good in more than just batting average.
On-base Times Slugging (OTS): OBP times SLG. Bill James once said that OPS should be multiplied because a team with a .400 OBP and a .400 SLG will score more runs than a team with a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG. It forces you to be good at both OBP and SLG instead of really good at one of them and mediocre at the other one.
Contact Batting Average (CBA): Hits divided by ABs minus Ks. This is almost exactly like Batted Balls in Play (BABIP) but this one keeps the HRs. BABIP just tries to show how lucky or unlucky a hitter is. I just want to show what a hitter's batting average would be if he didn't strike out so much.
Batter's Linear Weights (LWTS): These stat-heads (Pete Palmer and John Thorn) once determined the expected run value each hit brings. For example, they found out a HR on average scores 1.4 runs. They came up with a formula to determine the run value of a player: (.46 x 1B) + (.85 X 2B) + (1.02 x 3B) + (1.40 X HR) + [.33 X (BB+ HBP)] + (.22 X SB) + (-.35 X CS) + [- .26 x (AB-H)]
Game Winning RBI (CLUTCH): The original Game Winning RBI measures the RBI that put a team ahead for good. This one is the same only that the RBI has to occur in the 7th inning or later.
RBI success %: Ok I have no idea what to really call this but this is when you're batting with a runner on third with less than 2 outs. Your job is to get the run home and it's not too difficult because you don't even need to get a hit to bring the runner home. I've always wondered what Aramis Ramirez's success was in those situations when he was batting. It is calculated as RBIs divided by ABs in that situation.
Clutch Game Changing HR: This is one of those stats that may or may not exist but I don't see them anywhere. My clutch game changing HR is a HR hit in the 7th inning or later that results in the game being tied or the batting team taking the lead. Mark DeRosa's 2-run homer vs the Rockies in that comeback game would count as a clutch game changing HR.
Clutch Game-tying RBI: RBI that ties the game in the 7th inning or later.
Clutch Run Scored: I got to find ways to credit the Ryan Theriots and the Mark DeRosas. They don't get RBI chances like Lee and Ramirez but they do usually end up getting on base for them and scoring the important runs. They deserve credit too so this stat measures runs scored in the 7th inning or later that gives the batting team the lead or ties the game.
Clutch Game Winning Run: Same as clutch GWRBI but this is a run instead of an RBI.
Rally HR: It's a Home Run hit with the team trailing by three runs or less and does NOT tie the game or give team the lead. It can also be a grand slam that puts the team within three runs. Any HR that cuts a deficit to three or less.
Insurance HR: HR that occurs with team up 3 runs or less in 7th inning or later.
Game Changing HR: The same as the clutch game changing HR but it can be hit in any inning.
Low Value Home Run: I originally wanted to call this a meaningless home run or a non-valuable home run but any home run hit that doesn't help a team win is meaningless and any home run hit in which a team eventually wins (even if the team was down nine runs at the time) is not meaningless. So I'll call it low value. It doesn't mean it is worthless but even if the team wins, the run that tied the game will be more valuable than the run scored when down by six runs. It is a home run hit with a team up four runs or more OR a home run that results in a team still trailing by four runs or more.
Walk Rate: BB/PA
PDOBP (Plate Discipline On-Base Percentage): OBP + Walk Rate. I was originally going to use OBP + IsoD but IsoD includes hit by pitches and a blogger from walksaber.blogspot.com says that IsoD (OBP-BA) is a flawed stat. Using Walk Rate is a much better way to show a batter's plate discipline. The goal of this stat is to show an OBP that puts a bigger weight on walks than on hits. OBP is often labeled as better than batting average because it includes walks but if you have a .350 BA, it's not hard to have a better OBP than a player who walks a lot. Why not just focus on Walk Rate? I could but I want to look at players who can walk AND hit. A player with good plate discipline is useless if he is a very poor hitter. What good is a high walk rate if his OBP is only .265? This stat makes sure that batting average isn't completely ignored but it makes walks more important than hits.
BAWRIP: Batting Average plus Walk Rate plus Isolated Power. Similar to OPS but unlike OPS, it counts batting average just once instead of twice and it ignores hit by pitches. In my opinion, it is better than OPS.
IsoDPP: Isolated Discipline plus Isolated Power. It is OPS without batting average (NOTE: BA counts twice in OPS). I'm not sure how useful it is but it's for guys like Adam Dunn who have weak batting averages but still have impressive stats.
IsoDTS: Isolated Discipline times Isolated Power. Multiplying the two stats shows more balance between the two stats. A player with a .150 IsoD and a .250 IsoP will have a better IsoDTS than someone with a .050 IsoD and a .350 IsoP despite both players having the same IsoDPP.
Moneyball OPS (3OPS): In the book Moneyball, Paul DePodesta, who at the time was the assistant General Manager of the Oakland A's, was trying to figure how much more important OBP was than SLG. He determined (using statistical analysis) that OBP was indeed more important. According to Moneyball, "In his model an extra point of on-base percentage was worth three times an extra point of slugging percentage." So this stat is calculated as (3*OBP) + SLG= 3OPS. I've seen some baseball experts write that OBP is actually closer to two times more important than three times more important. However, I will stick with the formula DePodesta created. He may have overvalued OBP a little bit too much in order to make sure that players with a high 3OPS had a very good OBP. That makes the stat seemed biased and experts claim that OBP really isn't that much more important but nonetheless, I like it enough to use his model over anyone else because the other experts can't agree on an alternative number. They just know that is closer to two than it is to three. The next stat, GPA, has a weight on OBP than is closer to what the experts say than what DePodesta says.
Gross Production Average (GPA): [(OBP*1.8) + SLG] divided by 4. This stat that I discovered here is supposed to have a number that looks like batting average-- .360 is very good, .265 is about average, and .200 is horrible. The OBP times 1.8 part is a weighted OBP determined by Victor Wang. As for the dividing by 4, that's just so it is put on a scale similar to batting average. The stat was created by Aaron Gleeman.
Runners Advanced Plus/Minus (RA+/-): Plus (hitter advancing a runner who is on base) - Minus (hitting into a double play equals Plus/Minus score. For example, a batter who advances the runner 11 times and hits into a double play four times will have a score of +7.
Good/Bad Runners Advanced Factor: (Runners advanced divided by at bats with a runner(s) on base and less than two outs) minus (Double Plays divided by at bats with a runner(s) on base and less than two outs).
Out on basepaths: Number of times a runner makes an aggressive out (not including force outs). For example, Caught stealing and trying to stretch a double into a triple.
Scoring from second on a single: the number of times a runner on second scores on a single divided by the number of opportunities.
Scoring from first on a double: Same formula as above but involving a runner on first scoring on a double.
PITCHING STATS-
Wins Above Team: This is a stat I'll keep track of but I may not post it too many times because it's interesting but perhaps not very important. It is calculated as Pitcher's winning % minus team's winning % WITHOUT pitcher's decisions multiplied by pitcher's decisions. This stat shows why a 14-14 pitcher is doing more harm than good for a 100-62 team. I don't think you need to look at this stat to know that Tim Lincecum did an amazing job considering how bad the Giants were but it does show how MUCH better or worse he did.
Quality Start %: Quality Starts divided by Games Started.
Game Score: This is a pitching stat. Posting how to calculate it takes up too much space but basically you start with 50 points and how the pitcher does in his start determines how many points he finishes with. I think Kerry Wood's 20K game earned him the highest game score ever recorded.
Tough Loss/Cheap win: These are determined based whether the pitcher finishes below or under 50 points and whether or not the team won.
Inherited runners scored %: This is just how many runners on base score when a relief pitcher enters a game with runners on base.
Neutral Win Percentage: {NW% = W% - Mate/2 + .25}. Mate is the team’s winning percentage with the individual’s decisions removed. For example, the Long Birds go 100-62 (.617). Joe Heat goes 11-15 (.423). The Long Birds are 89-47 (.654) without Joe Heat. Thus the formula for his NW% is .423 - (.617/2) + .25. This gives him a low NW% of .365. This stat was taken from walksaber.blogspot.com. Click here for a more detail explanation of this stat.
Run Support Per Start: Runs scored while on the mound during start divided by games started.
Jam Success (Good/Bad): Good- Number of times when an inning that starts with a leadoff single, walk, or hit by pitch allowed doesn't result in a run scoring divided by the number of innings this sort of thing happens. Bad- same formula but the leadoff single/walk/HBP DOES eventually lead to a run scoring.
Runners LOB (left on base) Percentage: The number of runners left on base in innings when no runs are scored (other than a solo HR) divided by games started. This stat is a work-in-progress.
TEAM STATS-
Cubs Scored % (Leadoff double or Runner on 2nd with no outs): The percentage of times a runner scores after a leadoff double.
Cubs Scored % (Runner on 1st/no outs): Runs divided by opportunities (by opportunities I mean situations when there is a runner on 1st and no outs).
Cubs Scored % (Runner on 3rd/ one out): Runs divided by opportunities.
Intentional Walk Good (when Cubs are pitching): No runs scored divided by intentional walks.
Intentional Walk Not Good (when Cubs are pitching): times a run is scored in the inning divided by IBB.
Intentional Walk Bomb (when Cubs are pitching): when the IBB batter eventually scores or a runner that advanced a base on the IBB eventually scores divided by IBB.
Cubs Good Bunt: Advanced runner(s) scored divided by sac bunts.
Cubs Bad Bunt: No runs scored divided by sac bunts.
That's all of them for now I think. There are some questions I was requested to attempt to answer:
How often does a lead-off walk/single score when the runner is bunted over vs. not bunted over?
How often does a runner on second with no outs score when the runner is bunted over vs. not bunted over?
Does a lead-off walk score more often, less often, or the same as a lead-off single?
Does a two-out walk score more often, less often, or the same as a two-out single?
Is a two-out walk statistically more damaging than a one-out walk?
I should be able to answer them but I haven't created the formulas for them yet.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
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