Friday, February 13, 2009

List of Stats (with definitions)

Ok...here is the unofficial cubs hidden stats that you'll see here during the season assuming I don't change my mind between now and April.

NOTE: The stats that also appear in the "Where to find Cubs Hidden Stats" section located on the top right of the main page won't be shown in my posts but you can view them throughout the season by clicking on the link provided for each stat. They are stats I think are important but I see no need to record the stats in my posts if you can view them on another website. The point of including those particular stats is the fact they can be hard to find if you don't know where to look. They are hidden.

OFFENSIVE STATS-

Isolated Power (IsoP): Calculated as SLG minus BA. Takes away the singles that makes a person's SLG look higher than it should be.

Game Winning RBI (CLUTCH): The original Game Winning RBI measures the RBI that put a team ahead for good. This one is the same only that the RBI has to occur in the 7th inning or later.

RBI success % (runner on 3rd/less than 2 outs): This is when you're batting with a runner on third with less than 2 outs. Your job is to get the run home and it's not too difficult because you don't even need to get a hit to bring the runner home. I've always wondered how certain players like Aramis Ramirez did in those situations when he was batting. It is calculated as RBIs divided by ABs in that situation.

Game Changing HR: The same as the clutch game changing HR but it can be hit in any inning.

Clutch Game Changing HR: This is one of those stats that may or may not exist but I don't see them anywhere. My clutch game changing HR is a HR hit in the 7th inning or later that results in the game being tied or the batting team taking the lead. Mark DeRosa's 2-run homer vs the Rockies in that comeback game would count as a clutch game changing HR.

Clutch Game-tying RBI: RBI that ties the game in the 7th inning or later.

Clutch Game Winning Run: Same as clutch GWRBI but this is a run instead of an RBI (excludes Home Runs).

Rally HR: Any HR that cuts a deficit to three runs or less but does not tie game or give team the lead.

Clutch Rally HR: Rally HR hit in 7th inning or later.

Insurance HR: HR that occurs with team up 3 runs or less

Clutch Insurance HR
: HR that occurs with team up 3 runs or less in 7th inning or later.

Low Value Home Run: I originally wanted to call this a meaningless home run or a non-valuable home run but any home run hit that doesn't help a team win is meaningless and any home run hit in which a team eventually wins (even if the team was down nine runs at the time) is not meaningless. So I'll call it low value. It doesn't mean it is worthless but even if the team wins, the run that tied the game will be more valuable than the run scored when down by six runs. It is a home run hit with a team up four runs or more OR a home run that results in a team still trailing by four runs or more.

Walk Rate: BB/PA

PDOBP (Plate Discipline On-Base Percentage): OBP + Walk Rate. I was originally going to use OBP + IsoD but IsoD includes hit by pitches and a blogger from walksaber.blogspot.com says that IsoD (OBP-BA) is a flawed stat. Using Walk Rate is a much better way to show a batter's plate discipline. The goal of this stat is to show an OBP that puts a bigger weight on walks than on hits. OBP is often labeled as better than batting average because it includes walks but if you have a .350 BA, it's not hard to have a better OBP than a player who walks a lot. Why not just focus on Walk Rate? I could but I want to look at players who can walk AND hit. A player with good plate discipline is useless if he is a very poor hitter. What good is a high walk rate if his OBP is only .265? This stat makes sure that batting average isn't completely ignored but it makes walks more important than hits.

BAWRIP: Batting Average plus Walk Rate plus Isolated Power. Similar to OPS but unlike OPS, it counts batting average just once instead of twice and it ignores hit by pitches. In my opinion, it is better than OPS.

WRIP: WRIP is Walk Rate plus Isolated Power. It's sort of like Secondary Average in the sense that it shows what someone does besides batting average.

On-base Times Slugging (OTS): OBP times SLG. Bill James once said that OPS should be multiplied because a team with a .400 OBP and a .400 SLG will score more runs than a team with a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG. It forces you to be good at both OBP and SLG instead of really good at one of them and mediocre at the other one.

Gross Production Average (GPA): [(OBP*1.8) + SLG] divided by 4. This stat that I discovered here is supposed to have a number that looks like batting average-- .360 is very good, .265 is about average, and .200 is horrible. The OBP times 1.8 part is a weighted OBP determined by Victor Wang. As for the dividing by 4, that's just so it is put on a scale similar to batting average. The stat was created by Aaron Gleeman.

Win Probability Average (WPA): The Hardball Times says that WPA is a “system in which each player is given credit toward helping his team win, based on play-by-play data and the impact each specific play has on the team's probability of winning.” Go to http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/ for a detailed explanation of WPA.

Secondary Average (SecA): (TB - H + BB + SB - CS) / AB. It was originally created by Bill James. Rototimes.com has a good definition. They said, "Secondary Average, or SEC, is a sabermetric tool used to gauge a player's ability to produce extra bases independent of batting average (the total of a player's extra bases earned on hits, walks, and stolen bases expressed as a percentage of at-bats). The reason is simple. Batting average really tells you little about the type of hitter being listed. Does a .300 average mean that Player A is better than Player B, who hits .280? Not if Player A has 12 HRs while Player B knocks 32 longballs. In essence, SEC attempts to fill in the gaps that batting average doesn't address. As a result, SEC basically covers the three primary factors of an offensive contribution outside of average: power (bases), eye (BB) and speed (SB)."

Runs Created: This is what The Hardball Times said: "Runs Created. Invented by Bill James, RC is a very good measure of the number of runs a batter truly contributed to his team’s offense. The basic formula for RC is OBP*TB, but it has evolved into over fourteen different versions. We use the most complicated version, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact." The link for Runs Created will be from The Hardball Times website.


Runners Advanced Plus/Minus (RA+/-): Plus (hitter advancing a runner who is on base) - Minus (hitting into a double play) equals Plus/Minus score. For example, a batter who advances the runner 11 times and hits into a double play four times will have a score of +7.

Runner Advanced Percentage (RA%): Runner Advanced pluses divided by opportunities.

Out on basepaths: Number of times a runner makes an out at any base after he already safely reached first base. I will include outs such as caught stealing, out advancing, and doubled off on a fly out. I will exclude force outs and doubled off on a line drive.

Scoring from second on a single: the number of times a runner on second scores on a single divided by the number of opportunities.

Scoring from first on a double: Same formula as above but involving a runner on first scoring on a double.


PITCHING STATS-

Left On Base Percentage (LOB%)- From The Hardball Times, “Essentially, it's the number of baserunners who didn't score divided by the total number of baserunners (except those who scored on a home run). We exclude home runs from the base because we want to measure things a pitcher is less likely to control.” The exact formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)).

Quality Start: When a starting pitcher pitches 6 or more innings allowing 3 or less earned runs.

Quality Start %: Quality Starts divided by Games Started.

Game Score Average: This is a pitching stat. Posting how to calculate it takes up too much space but basically you start with 50 points and how the pitcher does in his start determines how many points he finishes with. I think Kerry Wood's 20K game earned him the highest game score ever recorded. I’ll take the game score from each start and divide by the number of starts. This is how Game Score is calculated:

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Tough Loss/Cheap win: These are determined based whether the pitcher finishes with a game score below or under 50 points and whether or not the team won. A tough loss is a loss despite a game score over 50 and a cheap win is a win despite a game score below 50. Good indicator of who won a game thanks in large part to the offense and who was denied a win because of poor hitting, bad defense, or a weak performance by the bullpen.

Inherited runners scored %: This is just the percentage of how many runners on base score when a relief pitcher enters a game with runners on base.


Fan Save Value: Fangraphs.com did a good job explaining it:

"FSV measures the difficulty level of each save by taking into account the lead with which the closer enters as well as the number of outs he must record to secure a win for his team. When all of the results are added together we are left with a number similar to the saves total but more indicative of how hard a closer had to work. The formula for FSV is (X/Y)/2, where X=the amount of outs to record and Y=the lead of his team. For instance, recording a one-inning save with a two-run lead would result in an FSV of 0.75; 3 outs divided by 2 runs ahead, then divided by 2."


Run Support Per Start: Runs scored while on the mound during start divided by games started.

Jam Success %: Number of times when an inning that starts with a leadoff single, walk, or hit by pitch allowed doesn't result in a run scoring divided by the number of innings this sort of thing happens.


Stops:
Stat created by a Cubs.com poster named illinijay2. There are two ways to earn one. First way is coming in with a lead and the tying or go ahead runs on base and getting out of the inning with the lead intact. Second way is coming in to a tie game with runners on and getting out of the inning with the tie intact.





TEAM STATS-

Cubs Scored % (Leadoff double or Runner on 2nd with no outs): The percentage of times a runner scores after a lead-off double or when the lead-off man reaches 2nd base BEFORE the next hitter bats.

Cubs Scored % (Runner on 1st/no outs): Runs divided by opportunities (by opportunities I mean situations when there is a runner on 1st and no outs).

Cubs Scored % (Runner on 3rd/ one out): Runs divided by opportunities.

Intentional Walk Good % (when Cubs are pitching): No runs scored divided by intentional walks.

Intentional Walk Not Good % (when Cubs are pitching): times a run is scored in the inning divided by IBB.

Intentional Walk Bomb % (when Cubs are pitching): when the IBB batter eventually scores or a runner that advanced a base on the IBB eventually scores divided by IBB.

Cubs Good Bunt %: Advanced runner(s) scored divided by sac bunts. Excluding bunts by pitcher.

Cubs Bad Bunt %: No runs scored divided by sac bunts. Excluding bunts by pitcher.

Cubs Scored % (lead-off walk): Runs divided by opportunities.

Cubs Scored % (lead-off single): Runs divided by opportunities.

Cubs Scored % (two out walk): Runs divided by opportunities with bases empty.

Cubs Scored % (two out hit): Runs divided by opportunities with bases empty excluding home runs.

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