Home Run Research Project

The 2009 season has started which means it is time to introduce something new to this site. This year I am breaking down home runs. Check out the Derrek Lee post for an idea of what to expect. I've wanted to do this for a couple years. It started when I noticed that Adam Dunn consistently hits 40 home runs in a season but I wondered how many of them actually were meaningful. Then I heard stuff about A-Rod hitting too many home runs in meaningless situations which led me to consider doing the project I am finally going to start this season.

In addition to home runs by every Cubs player, I would like to keep track of other home run hitters in MLB.



HOME RUN STATS:

• Home Runs in wins- home runs hit in games won by team.

• Home Runs in losses- home runs hit in games lost by team.

• Game Changing Home Run- home run that gives team the lead or ties the game.

• Clutch Game Changing Home Run- home run that gives team the lead or ties the game in the 7th inning or later.

• Rally HR- Any HR that cuts a deficit to three runs or less but does not tie game or give team the lead.

• Meaningful Rally Home Run: Any HR that cuts a deficit to three runs or less but does not tie game or give team the lead AND the team eventually wins the game.
  

• Insurance HR- HR that occurs with team up 3 runs or less.

• Clutch Insurance HR- HR that occurs with team up 3 runs or less in 7th inning or later.

• Low Value Home Run- home run hit with a team up four runs or more OR a home run that results in a team still trailing by four runs or more.

• Meaningless Home Run- home run hit in losses or home run that ultimately has no effect in a team’s win. Similar to Low Value Home Run but main difference is that Low Value Home Runs could end up being meaningful later (for example, a team eventually wins a game in which a player hit a home run that resulted in his team being still down 4+ runs or opposing team eventually ties game or gets within one run after player hit a home run with his team up 4+ runs). The stat is a judgment call similar to ruling an error on the field. Most home runs hit in wins will be declared meaningful unless it is a low value home run or an insurance home run that most likely was not absolutely needed for the win.